Kitchin pōʻaiapuni. Pōkole-manawa aneiai pōʻaiapuni. Juglar pōʻaiapuni. Kuznets pōʻaiapuni

Na aneiai kalapona - he fluctuation waiwai o ka loa wahi lulu huina hoonui i loko o ka lōʻihi makahiki. Ua emi a māhuahua ma GDP ua pili i ke kahua o ka? Acaeoey. He nui na ano o na oscillations, a oko i loko o kā lākou lōʻihi like 'ole. Most pōkole-manawa - Kitchin kalapona, ka lōʻihi like 'ole o ka a - 3-5 makahiki. Other economists Ua aʻo pū i ka ninau o ka loa? Iecaianoaaiiuo fluctuations. Dala i kekahi pōʻaiapuni Juglar, Kuznets a me Kondratiev.

Key hua'ōlelo

I ka holo ana o kona ulu ana, e like me ka hoʻokele waiwai i loko o kokololio? Acaeoey au a me ka stagnation. Kitchin kalapona wehewehe i ka pōkole-makahiki fluctuations. Kondratieff nalu ua uhi ka hapalua o ke kenekulia loli. I ka manaʻo o ka pāʻoihana kalapona ma ka palahalaha pono 'o ia hoʻi i ka wā o ka manawa i maupaʻa hoʻokahi wale nō manawa o ke ala a me ka haule ana, ae hiki aku kekahi i kekahi. Kēia mau anuu, he nui. An anakahi o ka mua a me ka hope o ka pōʻaiapuni o ka pakeneka o ka ulu ana o ka makemake loa wahi lulu huahana. ʻOiai pinepine mau fluctuations ma ka pāʻoihana ha awina e loa unpredictable.

Mōʻaukala o ke ao

I ka manaʻo o ka oicyenoaaiiie kalapona i hoole ia e ka poeikohoia o ka panina kula. I ko lakou ola, ma ka hana, ka mea i hoakaka ia e na kaua a me kāna hana e lawelawe. Lākou mua kaupaona i nā e Sismondi. Kana hana, ua hoolilo ai i ka panic o ka makahiki 1825 maʻEnelani, a i ka mea mua ? Aneiai ulia mai ai i loko o peacetime. Sismondi a me kona colleague Robert Owen kapa ia i ke kumu o ka overproduction a me ka underconsumption, kena ae la ia e disparities ma ka puunaue ana o makahiki ma waena o ka heluna kanaka. Ka mea, ua i loko o ka lokomaikai o ka moku'āina 'uao i loko o ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ka socialism. Ma nā hana koʻikoʻi a hanohano, kā lākou hana iʻaʻole koke mahalo. Eia naʻe, ma ka manaʻo i lalo-hokii, o ke kumu o crises, laila, ma laila e e kūkulu i kekahi luawai-ike Keynesian kula. Sismondi kumumanaʻo? Ac? E Charles Dunoyer. He kau aku i ka manaʻo o ee iaaanu aey pōʻaiapuni. Karl Marx ike aku la i ka papa'āweʻaweʻa kemika crises like me ka nui pilikia o kekahi capitalist ke kaiāulu kanaka, a me ka wānana i ka Communist kipi. Genri Dzhordzh kapa speculation me ka'āina i ka papa kuhikuhiE kumu o recessions a? Aaeaaaaony i ka hoʻokomo 'ia' ana o ka hookahi auhau ma luna o ka? Iecaianoaaiiie ololi.

ʻano likeʻole pōʻaiapuni

I ka 1860, Palani economist Klement Zhyuglyar mua hoakaka i ka aneiai fluctuations me ke alapine (frequency) o 7-11 makahiki. Yozef Shumpeter ua kūkākūkāʻia e ka mea, he poe eha kahua o ka hoʻonaʻauao.

• ? Anoe? Aiey. Aia ka he mahuahua i? Iecaianoaaiiuo puke, e ala ana i kala, hoihoi holo 'awelika haule.
• Hoʻoponopono ulia. Ma keia ke kahua, popopo i ka holoholona kūkaʻi, a me ka nui pāʻoihana a me ka poe e hele bankrupt.
• Recession. Kumu kūʻai a? Iecaianoaaiiuo puke hoʻomau i ka haule a me ka uku hoopanee holo 'awelika, me ka Akä naÿe, e ulu ana.
• Ke ola. Mail hou-hoʻomaka 'ana i ka hana ma kala, a iʻole loaʻa mai haule.

Schumpeter ua hoʻopili i ka waiwai loaa me ka ulu o ke-i? Iecaianoaaiiuo ka hoʻokōʻana, hilinai i loko o ka wā e hiki mai nā mea kūʻai mai o hoʻopiha koi a me nā kumukūʻai. Ma ka waena o ka XX ke kenekulia,ʻo ia kona makemake nui i ka typology o ka pōʻaiapuni no lākou lōʻihi like 'ole. I waena o lākou:

• Kitchin pōʻaiapuni. Ua lawe 3 i ka 5 makahiki.
• Juglar pōʻaiapuni. Kona lōʻihi like 'ole - 7-11 makahiki.
• Kuznets pōʻaiapuni. Ua Ua pili me ka waihona kālā ma ka aeuiiai ieaia?. Ua lawe 15 a hiki i 25 makahiki.
• Kondratʻeva nalu a lōʻihi kaʻina kalapona. Ua lawe mai ka 45 a hiki i 60 makahiki.

I kēia lā, e ulu i loko o ka pōʻaiapuni ua hoʻemi iki. O ke kumu ho i ka mea i ke kālā no macroeconomics 'Aʻole i kākoʻo i ka manaʻo o ka pololei, papa'āweʻaweʻa kemika oscillations.

Kitchin pōʻaiapuni

Ua lawe ma kahi o 40 mahina. Mau pōkole-manawa fluctuations i mua hoʻokolokoloʻia e Joseph Kitchin i 1920. Kona kumu ua noʻonoʻo i? Aiaiiuie lag i loko o ka neʻeʻana o ka 'ike e alakai i ka holo koke hoʻoholo no onipaa no. Ua kūpaʻa mau pane koke e hoʻoikaika 'i ke kalepa pilikia ma ka māhuahua? Iecaianoaaiiuo. Kēia hualoaʻa ma piha ka hanaʻana o ka hana a me ka kulanakauhale alii. E like me ka hopena, ma hope o ka kekahi manawa, i ke kuai lilo ia waikahe me ka waiwai. Kā lākou mea e like ai deteriorates aie ai i ke kānāwai o ke nonoi aku nei. Koi i lalo, ke kumukuai - ka ia waiwai e hoomaka ana i ka ua piʻi aʻela ma ka aee. Ma hope o kekahi kekahi manawa, ka poe hoʻomaka e emi? Iecaianoaaiiuo. A hele Kitchin pōʻaiapuni.

Kumu a me ka hopena

Kitchin aneiai pōʻaiapuni pili me ka nele o ka manawa kūpono o ka instantaneous auhau o ka makeke kūlana. Ua kūpaʻa mau pono ana e hoʻomaka e hoonui? Iecaianoaaiiuo, a e hooholo ina paha e ho'ēmi i kona leo. Ke kali hou aku ka aie i ka mea i nā haku mai i koke ike i ka i lanakila manawa ma ke kuai - lako a koi. A laila, e pono i kekahi e kaha i ka 'ike. Ua paʻa a me ka manaʻo o nā pāʻoihana ma ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa. 'Aʻole no ka oluolu e koke huli hou? Aaiuo a waiho iho la i ka mea kahiko poʻe. Penei, pōkole-manawa Kitchin kalapona me ke kali hou aku i loko o ka ohi a me ka aaioee o ka 'ike hou pili.

Yozef Kitchin: Summary

He He He hoʻomalu Pelekāne i loko o ka mahinaʻai o nā 'ikepili helu a me ka pāʻoihana. Yozef Kitchin hana i loko o ka hoʻouku hana ma South Africa. I ka 1923, ua Ho'āʻo he ao o pōkole-makahiki pāʻoihana pōʻaiapuni i loko o ka United Kingdom, a me kaʻAmelika Hui Pūʻia i loko o ka manawa mai ka 1890 a hiki i 1922. Lākou lōʻihi like 'ole i kahi o 40 makahiki. Nā hualoaʻa o kona noiʻi, oia ua hōʻolokeʻaʻia i ka hana me ke kuleana "pōʻaiapuni, a kū i ke au i loko o aneiai aʻe." Ka mea kākau wehewehe i ke alo o ia mau kuekueni manaʻoʻike reactions ka capitalist pololei o? Iecaianoaaiiuo i a me ka manawa lags i loko o ka EYI o ka 'ike i ka loli ai i ke kaʻina hana o ka hoʻoholo-hana ana i paʻaʻole. Ma nā hua'ōlelo, ka Kitchin kalapona ua wehewehe aku ma ka rula hooponopono o ka lako hou i ka waiwai ma ka hana ma ka hua'ōlelo o ko lākou nele i loko o ke kuai.

A au o 7-11 makahiki

Juglar kalapona He mau manawa hou ma mua o Kitchin. Akā, kona ola ana nä känaka 'epekema hoʻonohonoho hou i ka 1862. Mawaena o na kumu hōʻike 'fluctuations Juglar kapa loli ma ka waiwai kūʻai i paa waiwai,ʻaʻole like ka nui o ka hana. I ka makahiki 2010, he ao hoʻohana spectral Ka Ikepili hoopaa i ke ola ana o ia mau pōʻaiapuni i loko o nāʻano o ko ke ao nei ka hookuli wahi lulu huahana.

Kuznets pōʻaiapuni

Kēia oscillation expectancy. Ka mea, i mua i ka noiʻi 'o Simona Kuznets ma na 1930s. Ka mea, lawe ma kahi o 15-25 makahiki. Ke kumu no keia cyclical mea kākau i kapa helu wehewehe keʻano o ka hanaʻana. He nānā akula au i ka influx o nā kānaka eʻe'āina a me nā'iako? Ieoaeunoai. Smith wehewehe aku la no hoi ia e like me ka aeuiiai ieaia? Waiwai kūʻai pōʻaiapuni. Kekahi kēia economists Loulou i ka ikepili pōʻaiapuni me 18-makahiki fluctuations i loko o ke dala ma ka aina me ka ololi o ke? Iecaianoaaiiuo. Auaiaea ka mea ike i ka hoʻokomo 'ia' ana o ka auhau kūikawā. Eia naʻe, Fred Harrison manaoio ia ia, aole ia e kōkua i mitigate cyclicality. I ka makahiki 1968 Hauri nema aku i ka mahele Kuznets. He ua kūkākūkāʻia i ka hewa ikepili i ua kālailai. Eia naʻe, Smith'ī akula i nā pōʻaiapuni hōʻike 'ka mea hiki ke ike i loko o ka ulu o ka honua loa wahi lulu huahana, a me ka hoʻohana' ana o ka Kānana invented ia.

puni noiʻi Kondratieff

Most lōʻihi pāʻoihana pōʻaiapuni i ka lōʻihi like 'ole o 45-60 makahiki. Ka pono-ike Soviet economist Kondratieff manaoio i fluctuations aloha ia a pau nāʻoihana o ka hoʻokele waiwai. Heʻeleu ma kala, hoihoi holo 'awelika. Kēlā me kēia pōʻaiapuni Kondratiev hookoaiaʻi lakou eha kahua o ka hoʻonaʻauao. I ka papa kuhikuhiE inideka, i kona aʻo, ua ka? Iecaianoaaiiie i hua'ōlelo o ka waiwai. I ka lā, aia no elime hawewe lōʻihi:

• Mai ka 1890 i ka makahiki 1850, hoʻopiʻi ai i ke ano o ka mahu engine, a me ka hoʻomaka o ka laha pono o ka pulupulu.
• Mai ka makahiki 1850 a hiki i 1900. O ka papa kuhikuhiE engine kila hoino aku a me ka kila? Iecaianoaaiiuo.
• Mai ka 1900 i ka makahiki 1950 e pili pū ana i ka uila puʻunaue a me ka ulu ana o ka Nine Inch hana.
• Mai ka makahiki 1950 a hiki i 1990 nāʻoihana lilo propulsive pharmaceuticals a me nā kaʻa.
• New nalu pili me ka 'ike a me ka' ike loea hou palapala like me ka engine o ka holomua.

Ma waho aʻeo i keʻanoʻenehana wehewehe, ua ua hoʻopili kekahi kānakaʻepekema lōʻihi Kondratieff pōʻaiapuni me ka helu wehewehe loli, speculation me ka'āina a me ka aie deflation. Aia i kekahi mau kēia wale nō o ka pähola 'ana o ka Soviet economist. Ka mea hiki ke maheleia i mau pūʻulu. Ka mea mua e kālele ana ma luna o ka loli ma ka 'enehana. I ka lua o ka hoʻokolokolo ai i ka ai kalapona. Eia naʻe, he nui economists mai iʻae i ka kumumanaʻo Kondratieff lōʻihi nalu. Pela hoi, aole oi controversial e puni mea i nā makahiki noʻonoʻo i ka hoʻomaka o kēlā me kēia pōʻaiapuni. I ka hoouka kaua ana o ka global kālā ulia fits pono lawa i ka kumumanaʻo Kondratieff, ka hōʻikeʻana i ka hoʻomaka o ka wā o ke hoole mai oia.