He aha ka ka conditional pahiki, a pehea e ho omaulia i ka mea pono?

Pinepine i loko o ke ola i ke ehuehu o mākou i ka mea ana e pono e Loiloi i ka manawa o ka hanana o kekahi hanana. Ina au e kuai i ka lottery balota a ole, mea makemake e i ka papahele o ke keiki i loko o ke kolu o ka ohana, ina paha apopo ao, e hoʻoua hou - ka examples i olalo. I ka simplest hihia, me ka helu o nā 'ano nā haumāna i puunaueia ma ka huina helu o nā hanana. Inā ka lottery balota e lanakila ana 10, a me ka huina o ka 50, i ka manawa o ka noho i ka makana like no 10/50 = 0.2, oa 20 kū'ē 100. Akā mea e hana ai i loko o ka hanana i loaʻa i mau hanana, a me ka mea i pili loa aku i kekahi i kekahi? Ma keia hihia, ke i hoihoi i ka mea i oluolu, a me ka conditional pahiki. He aha ke ano o ka waiwai, a pehea ia hiki e pōpilikia - ia, e pono e uhi i loko o kēia 'atikala.

manaʻo

Conditional pahiki - he wale hanana o kekahi hanana, aka i ka mea'ē aʻe kekahi hanana pili i ka mea i mua i hiki mai ai. i ka mea hoʻohālike o ka hoolei ana i ke dala e noonoo. I ka wā o ka unuhi uaʻaʻole ma laila, a laila, i ka manawa o ka haule ana poo a me huelo, e ia i ka ia. Akā, inā i ke dala Elima oʻu hahau ana i loko o ka lālani hele aku la i na mea kaua mai, a manaʻo e pili no hoi ka 6th, 7th, a oi loa aku hoi i ka 10th repetition o ia i ka hoʻokūkū makemake e illogical. Me kēlā hai manawa lilo o kaʻaeto, i ka manawa o ka huelo e ulu ana, a ma neia hope aku ka mea, e hāʻule nō.

I ka haʻilula o conditional pahiki

E iā mākou e hana pū ana i keia waiwai he pōpilikia. Mākou Kû ke ma B ka hanana mua a me ka lua ma A. Inā i ka manawa o ka hanana i loko o ka ole-Aʻohe, laila ia mea maikaʻi i ke kēia helu kaulike.

P (A | B) = P (AB) / P (B), kahi:

• P (A | B) - A huina o conditional pahiki;
• P (AB) - ka pahiki o ke kākoʻo '-hanana o nā hanana A a me B;
• P (B) - ka pahiki o ka hanana B.

Iki hoʻololi 'ana i loaa i ka lākiō P (AB) = P (A | B) P * (B). A ina ua pili i ka ano o ka hoʻokomo, e mea hiki ke ho oholo i ka haʻilula o ka huina hoonui, a hana ia no ka ākeʻakeʻa kumu helu o nā hanana:

P (A _1, A _2, A _3, ... A _N) = P (A ₁ | A ₂ ... A _N) * P (A ₂ | A ₃ ... A _N) * P ₍₃ | A ₄ ... A _N ) ... P _(n-1 | _n A) * P _(n).

ka hana pono

I ka e hiki pono o ka hana me pehea ka pōpilikia conditional pahiki o ka hanana, noonoo i ka mau o ka examples. Ina he mea kekahi bola i loko i loaʻa nō 8 7 chocolates a me ka mineta. Ka mea, i ka ia i ka nui a me ka randomly consecutively huki mai elua o ia mau mea. He aha nō ka hiki wale mai i nā o ia e e kokoleka? Mākou mai i ka notation. A e ka hopena o ia hoʻi, i ka mua kokoleka ke kanakē, he huina o In - i ka lua o ka mea ala kokoleka. Alaila, hele aku mākou i nā kēia:

P (A) = P (B) = 8/15

P (A | B) = P (B | A) = 7/14 = 1/2,

P (AB) = 8/15 x 1/2 = 4/15 ≈ 0,27

E hoomanao i kekahi hihia. Ina oe i kekahi mau-keikiʻohana, a ua ike ia ma ka liʻiliʻi loa hoʻokahi keiki nei he kaikamahine. He aha ka ka conditional pahiki i na keiki i loko o kēia mau makua keia manawa? Like i loko o ka mua hihia, e ka hoʻomaka me kekahi notation. E P (B) - ka pahiki i kekahiʻohana i ma ka liʻiliʻi loa hoʻokahi kaikamahine, P (A | B) - ka pahiki i ke keiki lua o ka mea no hoi he kaikamahine, F (AB) - ka hiki wale mai i kaʻohana o nā kaikamahine elua. Ano mākou e i ka ho. Aia hiki e 4 kekahi pu ana o ke kane a me ka wahine me na keiki, a ma ka mea hookahi manawa i loko o hoʻokahi wale hihia (ka wā o nāʻohana mau keikikane), kaikamahine e ole ia i waena o nā keiki. No laila, i ka pahiki P (B) = 3/4 a me ka P (AB) = 1/4. A laila, e hahai mākou haʻilula, ua loaʻa:

P (A | B) = 1/4: 3/4 = 1/3.

Ano i ka hopena hiki e keia. Ina i ole ike mākou e pili ana i ke kula e ana o kekahi o na keiki, i ka manawa o nā kaikamahine elua makemake e 25 e ku e 100. Akā, uaʻike nō ia i ke keiki o ke kaikamahine, i ka likelihood i ole keiki kāne i loko o ka 'ohana, ulu mai ana i kekahi mai kolu.